The following tables report actual recidivism rates: reoffense (Tables 6 and 7) and reimprisonment (Tables 8 and 9)-for inmates released from Department facilities. The tables report recidivism rate estimates and confidence intervals for selected categories of each factor at three follow-up periods (18, 36, and 60 months). The rates can be interpreted as the probable recidivism (reoffense or reimprisonment) rate for a typical inmate in the category on each factor.
These rates do not take into account other factors' influences, so they are not appropriate for determining which factor influences recidivism by how much. For example, according to these actual rates, black female inmates reoffend at higher rates than other females. However, this is because other factors that increase recidivism (e.g., prior recidivism, drug crimes, etc.) are more pronounced in black females as compared with other females. Therefore, care must be taken when using these actual rates. In this example, it is reasonable, based on these rates, to expect that 34.3% of black females and 31.8% of non-black females will recidivate within 36 months. It is not correct to conclude from these rates—unadjusted by other factors—that a female's likelihood of recidivating is higher because she is black. In fact, when controlling for the influences of other factors, females who are black are 13.5% less likely to reoffend. For information on the relative effects of individual factors, see Factors Affecting Recidivism Rates.