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Rick Scott, Governor
Florida Department of Corrections, Secretary Michael D. Crews

Florida Department of Corrections
Michael D. Crews, Secretary

Recidivism Report
July 2003 		first | previous | 11 of 22 | next

Table 5: Summary of Individual Factor Effects

Table 5. SUMMARY OF INDIVIDUAL FACTOR EFFECTS
FACTOR REOFFENSE REIMPRISONMENT
COHORT
 Male Female Male Female
N = 80,919 N = 7,759 N = 80,919 N = 7,759
Age at Release (years) -3.2 % / year** -2.9 % / year** -3.3 % / year** -3.4 % / year**
(-0.22 / +0.19) (-0.64 / +0.69) (-0.18 / +0.24) (-1.00 / +0.97)
Race (black) +27.1 % ** -13.5 % † +30.8 % ** -21.7 % †
(-3.8 / +4.0) (-8.3 / +9.2) (-5.0 / +5.2) (-10.9 /+12.6)
Ethnicity (Hispanic) -6.2 % ‡ -26.7 % ‡ -6.2% -28.8%
(-5.5 / +5.8) (-18.5 / +24.9) (-7.0 / +7.6) (-25.4 / +39.5)
Release Custody:
High +3.9 % ‡ -24.1% +6.7 % † -11.1%
(-3.7 / +3.9) (-19.2 / +25.5) (-4.7 / +4.8) (-30.3 / +46.0)
Low -14.3 % ** -9.10% -17.1 % ** -9.20%
(-2.4 / +2.5) (-9.1 / +10.0) (-2.9 / +2.9) (-12.7 / +14.8)
Post-Release Supervision -14.2 % ** -17.3 % * +6.8 % ** 2.0%
(-2.2 / +2.3) (-8.5 / +9.5) (-3.4 / +3.5) (-14.2 / +16.6)
Time in Prison (months) -0.7 % / month** -1.5 % / month** -0.4 % / month** -0.9 % / month†
(-0.04 / +0.06) (-0.39 / +0.42) (-0.13 / +0.07) (-0.53 / +0.58)
Disciplinary Reports (#) +1.8 % / report** +2.3 % / report** +1.6 % / report** +1.4 % / report†
(-0.20 / +0.20) (-0.68 / +0.69) (-0.24 / +0.25) (-0.94 / +0.93)
Education Level (grade) -2.4 % / grade** -2.5 % / grade† -3.5 % / grade** -4.0 % / grade†
(-0.45 / +0.37) (-1.65 / +1.63) (-0.51 / +0.53) (-2.48 / +2.42)
Prior Recidivism (#) +21.9 % / event** +27.2 % / event** +28.4 % / event** +34.3 % / event**
(-0.99 / +1.02) (-4.05 / +4.03) (-1.25 / +1.23) (-5.54 / +5.53)
Most Serious Career Crime:
Homicide -28.3 % ** -42.3 % † -21.6 % ** -37.4%
(-5.4 / +5.8) (-17.2 / +24.5) (-7.3 / +8.1) (-25.6 / +43.4)
Sex / Lewdness -31.5 % ** -53.1 % ‡ -19.8 % ** -57.0%
(-4.5 / +4.7) (-23.7 / +48.0) (-6.5 / +7.0) (-29.3 / +92.3)
Robbery -1.5% 1.7% +13.7 % ** +33.7 % †
(-3.9 / +4.2) (-.14 / +.17) (-5.8 / +6.0) (-25.7 / +31.8)
Other Violent -2.8% -4.6% 4.0% 15.1%
(-3.6 / +3.7) (10.2 / +11.5) (-5.0 / +5.2) (-17.7 / +20.9)
Burglary +11.6 % ** +27.1 % * +28.7 % ** +58.6 % **
(-4.2 / +4.4) (-15.8 / +18.1) (-6.2 / +6.6) (-27.5 / +33.4)
Property Crimes (#) +2.8 % / crime** +1.5 % / crime* +2.7 % / crime** +1.6 % / crime‡
(-0.32 / +0.36) (-0.89 / +0.88) (-0.44 / +0.43) (-1.40 / +1.45)
Drug Crimes (#) +2.6 % / crime** +4.8 % / crime** +2.1 % / crime** +5.7 % / crime**
(-0.58 / +0.49) (-1.52 / +1.53) (-0.70 / +0.67) (-2.10 / +2.15)
Weapons Crimes (#) -1.8 % / crime -1.3 % / crime -3.4 % / crime† +5.7 % / crime
(-2.02 / +2.05) (-13.33 / +13.33) (-2.48 / +2.48) (-17.74 / +17.76)
Significance levels ** p<0.0001 * p<0.001 † p<0.01 ‡ p<0.05

Findings:

  • Five factors raise both reoffense and recidivism for males and females:

    1. disciplinary reports (more) - especially for female reoffending
    2. prior recidivism (more) - especially for females and for reimprisonment
    3. burglary (worst crime) - especially for females and for reimprisonment
    4. property crimes (more) - especially for males
    5. drug crimes (more) - especially for females

  • Seven factors lower both reoffense and recidivism for males and females:

    1. age (older) - especially for female reimprisonment
    2. ethnicity (Hispanic) - especially for female reoffending (not significant for reimprisonment)
    3. custody (low) - especially for males (not significant for females)
    4. time in prison (more) - especially for female reoffending
    5. education level (higher) - especially for reimprisonment
    6. homicide (worst crime) - especially for reoffending (not significant for female reimprisonment)
    7. sex/lewdness (worst crime) - especially for reoffending and for females (not significant for female reimprisonment)

  • Six factors have mixed effects on reoffending and reimprisonment or between males and females:

    1. race (Black) - raises recidivism for males, but lowers for females
    2. custody (high) - raises recidivism for males, but lowers for females (not significant for females)
    3. supervision after release - lowers reoffending, but raises reimprisonment (not significant for female reimprisonment)
    4. robbery (worst crime) - raises reimprisonment, but not reoffending
    5. other violent (worst crime) - raises reimprisonment, but lowers reoffending (not significant)
    6. weapons crimes (more) - lowers female reoffending only (not significant)

Note: "Significant" refers to levels of statistical significance as noted on Table 5. It does not refer to the size of the effect.

Recidivism Report
July 2003 		first | previous | 11 of 22 | next