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Rick Scott, Governor
Florida Department of Corrections, Secretary Michael D. Crews

Florida Department of Corrections
Michael D. Crews, Secretary

Factors in Order of Predictive Ability

Listed below are the factors in order of importance followed by an ‘H’ if the factor is associated with a higher likelihood of recidivism and an ‘L’ for a lower likelihood of recidivism.

Males

  1. Number of Prior Prison Commitments – H
  2. Supervision Following Prison – H
  3. Age at Release – L
  4. Number of Disciplinary Reports while in Prison – H
  5. Most Recent TABE (Educational Level) – L
  6. Number of Theft/Fraud Offenses – H
  7. Race is Black – H
  8. Inmate Reported Drug Screening Score – H
  9. Number of Burglary Offenses – H
  10. Low Custody – L
  11. Number of Drug Offenses – H
  12. Hispanic Ethnicity – L
  13. Worst Offense is Murder/Manslaughter – L
  14. Time Served (Months) – H
  15. High Custody – H
  16. Inmate has NO Spouse – H
  17. Friends are a Positive Influence on the Inmate – L
  18. Worst Offense is Sex Offense – H
  19. Inmate has a Positive Relationship with their Attorney – H
  20. Worst Offense is Other Violent (e.g. Aggravated Assault, Assault, Battery) – L
  21. Friends are a Negative Influence on the Inmate - H
  22. Number of Weapons Offenses – L
  23. Family has a Positive Influence on the Inmate – L
  24. Diagnosed Mental Illness – L

Females

  1. Number of Prior Prison Commitments – H
  2. Supervision Following Prison - H
  3. Age at Release - L
  4. Inmate Reported Drug Screening Score - H
  5. Most Recent TABE (Educational Level) – L
  6. Number of Theft/Fraud Offenses - H
  7. Low Custody - L
  8. Number of Drug Offenses - H
  9. Hispanic Ethnicity - L
  10. Number of Disciplinary Reports while in Prison - H
  11. Number of Burglary Offenses– H
  12. Diagnosed Mental Illness - H
  13. Friends are a Negative Influence on the Inmate -H
  14. Worst Offense is Murder/Manslaughter – L
  15. Worst Offense is Violent – L
  16. Inmate has a Positive Relationship with their Attorney – H
  17. Number of Weapons Offenses – H
  18. Inmate Concerned About Child’s Welfare –H
  19. Family has a Positive Influence on the Inmate – L

The factors that affect Male recidivism, but not Females are:

  1. Race is Black
  2. Time Served (Months)
  3. High Custody
  4. Inmate has NO Spouse
  5. Friends are a Positive Influence on the Inmate
  6. Worst Offense is Sex Offense

The factors that affect Female recidivism, but not Males are:

  1. Inmate Concerned About Child’s Welfare
  2. Family has a Positive Influence on the Inmate

Factors Not Included in the Model

Factors
Value Overall Releases 2003-2010 % Recidivism
Rate
Release Type
Expiration of Sentence
(No Supervision to Follow)
157,461 65% 25%
Conditional Release
(mandatory supervision for serious
offenders as specified in F.S. 947.1405)
36,483 15% 53%
Expiration of Sentence to
Probation or Community Control
(Split Sentence)
35,572 15% 41%
Release Facility
Major Correctional Institution 184,824 78% 34%
Work/Forestry Camp 19,183 8% 31%
Work Release Center 31,453 13% 21%

Note that the results presented in the preceding table do not constitute a rigorous evaluation of any factor.  For example, it is not valid to claim that if all inmates went to Work Release Centers, one would realize a lower overall recidivism rate.  Inmates who succeed at work release do not have the same characteristics as many other inmates, so the work release impact would likely be different if expanded to include a broader group of inmates.

When comparing recidivism rates across groups or programs, caution must be taken to ensure that the same parameters are considered.  The key considerations include the definition of recidivism, the time-period of interest since release, methodology and calculation, characteristics of the respective groups, and the relative sample size of the groups or programs being compared.