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Rick Scott, Governor
Florida Department of Corrections, Secretary Michael D. Crews

Florida Department of Corrections
Timothy H. Cannon, Interim Secretary

Recidivism Rates - Model Factor Tables for Inmates Released 2003-2010

Table 1: Hazard Ratios for Categorical Factors Selected by Model

Value N % Of Release Cohort Recidivism Rate Hazard Ratio
Gender
Male 216,082 89% 34% 1.598**
Female 27,780 11% 19%  
Race
Black  120,845 50% 37% 1.206**
Non-Black  123,017 50% 27%  
Ethnicity
Hispanic  18,141 7% 25% 0.783**
Non-Hispanic  225,721 93% 32%  
Custody
Low  116,815 48% 27% 0.854**
High  34,604 14% 41% 1.091**
Most Serious Crime in Inmate History
Murder / Manslaughter  8,055 3% 28% 0.768**
Sex Offense  16,763 7% 35% 1.086**
Other Violent Offense such as assault and kidnapping  64,277 26% 32% 0.965**
Supervision to Follow
Yes  84,591 35% 44% 1.965**
No  159,271 65% 25%  
Family has a Positive Influence on Inmate
Yes  179,442 84% 32% 0.964**
No  32,911 16% 34%  
Friends are a Negative Influence on Inmate
Yes  17,629 8% 35% 1.06**
No  194,724 92% 32%  
Friends are a Positive Influence on Inmate
Yes  118,245 56% 31% 0.958**
No  94,108 44% 34%  
No Spouse
Yes  53,127 25% 34% 1.058**
No  159,226 75% 32%  
Inmate has a Positive Relationship with their Attorney
Yes  100,979 48% 33% 1.045**
No  111,374 52% 32%  
**: p-value ≤ 0.01; *: 0.01 < p-value ≤0.05; NS: Not Significant at α = 0.05

Table 2. Hazard Ratios for Continuous Factors

Value Median Mean Hazard Ratio
Criminal History
Number of Prior Prison Commitments (0-9) 0 0.6 1.331**
Number of Burglary Offenses (0-102) 0 1.0 1.035**
Number of Theft Offenses (0-401) 0 1.9 1.011**
Number of Drug Offenses (0-86) 0 1.9 1.022**
Number of Weapons Offenses (0-27) 0 0.2 0.984**
Substance Abuse Need
Inmate-Reported Drug Screening Score (0-14) 4 5.5 1.026**
Time Served
Months served during current incarceration (1-1113) 21 36.0 1.001**
Institutional Behavior
Number of Disciplinary Reports during current incarceration (0-269) 0 2.5 1.013**
Educational Level
Most recent TABE score (grade equivalents of 1-12.9) 6.8 *** 0.965**
Age
Age at release (15-89) 34 35.2 0.975**
**: p-value ≤ 0.01; *: 0.01 < p-value ≤0.05; NS: Not Significant at α = 0.05; ***: An average cannot be calculated for grade equivalent TABE scores since these are not interval scale.

Note that hazard ratios in the above tables are interpreted as the multiple of the likelihood of failure.  For example, male inmates have a hazard ratio of 1.598.  Since it is greater than one, it means that a male inmate is (1.598-1=0.598) 59.8% more likely to fail than a female inmate with all other factors held constant (they are identical on all factors in the model except for gender).

On the other hand, if the hazard ratio is less than one, the interpretation is a percent reduction in likelihood to fail.  For example, a Hispanic inmate is (1-0.783=.217) 21.7% less likely to recidivate than a non-Hispanic inmate with all other factors held constant.

Those measures that are expressed as numeric counts instead of dichotomous (Yes/No), the hazard ratios show the increase or decrease PER UNIT INCREASE in the factor.  For example, for each additional disciplinary report an inmate incurs while incarcerated, his likelihood of recidivating increases by (1.013-1=.013) 1.3%.  For each additional grade level tested, his likelihood of recidivating decreases by (1-0.965=0.035) 3.5%.