Skip navigation.
Home | About Us | Contact Us
Rick Scott, Governor
Florida Department of Corrections, Secretary Michael D. Crews

Florida Department of Corrections
Timothy H. Cannon, Interim Secretary

Factors in Order of Predictive Ability

Listed below are the factors in order of importance followed by an ‘H’ if the factor is associated with a higher likelihood of recidivism and an ‘L’ for a lower likelihood of recidivism.

Males

  1. Number of Prior Prison Commitments – H
  2. Supervision Following Prison – H
  3. Age at First Offense – L
  4. Number of Disciplinary Reports while in Prison – H
  5. Gang Member Suspected or Confirmed – H
  6. Most Recent TABE (Educational Level) – L
  7. Inmate Reported Drug Screening Score – H
  8. Race is Black – H (Lower for Females)
  9. Number of Theft/Fraud Offenses within 5 Years of Admission– H
  10. Number of Burglary Offenses – H
  11. Low Custody – L
  12. Worst Offense is Murder/Manslaughter – L
  13. Hispanic Ethnicity – L
  14. Inmate has NO Spouse – H
  15. Number of Weapons Offenses – L
  16. Number of Drug Offenses within 5 Years of Admission – H
  17. Sex Offense within 15 Years of Admission – H
  18. Friends are a Positive Influence on the Inmate – L
  19. High Custody – H
  20. Other Violent Offenses within 15 Years of Admission (e.g., Aggravated Assault, Assault, Battery) – L
  21. Number of Other Non-Violent Offenses within 5 Years of Admission– H
  22. Friends are a Negative Influence on the Inmate – H
  23. Diagnosed Mental Illness – L (Higher for Females)
  24. Worst Offense is Robbery – L
  25. Inmate has an Average Concern for Child's Welfare – L

Females

  1. Number of Prior Prison Commitments – H
  2. Supervision Following Prison - H
  3. Age at First Offense - L
  4. Inmate Reported Drug Screening Score - H
  5. Most Recent TABE (Educational Level) – L
  6. Number of Theft/Fraud Offenses within 5 Years of Admission – H
  7. Number of Other Non-Violent Offenses within 5 Years of Admission - H
  8. Low Custody - L
  9. Hispanic Ethnicity – L
  10. Diagnosed Mental Illness – H (Lower for Males)
  11. Murder/Manslaughter Offense within 15 Years of Admission– L
  12. Friends are a Negative Influence on the Inmate - H
  13. Number of Disciplinary Reports while in Prison - H
  14. Other Violent Offense within 15 Years of Admission - L
  15. Number of Drug Offenses within 5 Years of Admission – H
  16. Race is Black – L (Higher for Males)
  17. Number of Burglary Offenses within 5 Years of Admission – H

The factors that affect male recidivism, but not females are:

  1. Suspected or Confirmed Gang Member
  2. Inmate has NO Spouse
  3. Number of Weapons Offenses
  4. Sex Offense within 15 Years of Admission
  5. Custody is High
  6. Friends are a Positive Influence on the Inmate
  7. Worst Offense is Robbery
  8. Inmate has an Average Concern for Child’s Welfare

The factors that affect both males and females, but in opposite directions:

  1. The factor Race is Black is associated with a higher recidivism rate for males and a lower recidivism rate for females.
  2. The factor Diagnosed with a Mental Illness is associated with a higher recidivism rate for females and a lower recidivism rate for males.

Table 3 Factors Not Included in the Model

Factors Values Overall Releases 2004-2011 Percent of Release Cohort Recidivism
Rate
Release Type Expiration of Sentence
(No Supervision to Follow)
162,471 65% 24%
Conditional Release
(mandatory supervision for serious
offenders as specified in F.S. 947.1405)
37,208 15% 50%
Expiration of Sentence to
Probation or Community Control
(Split Sentence)
36,082 14% 39%
Release Facility Major Correctional Institution 193,726 79% 31%
Work/Forestry Camp 17,851 7% 29%
Work Release Center/Transition Center 30,437 12% 19%

Note that the results presented in Table 3 do not constitute a rigorous evaluation of any factor. For example, it is not valid to claim that if all inmates went to Work Release Centers, one would realize a lower overall recidivism rate. Inmates who succeed at work release do not have the same characteristics as many other inmates, so the work release impact would likely be different if expanded to include a broader group of inmates.

When comparing recidivism rates across groups or programs, caution must be taken to ensure that the same parameters are considered. The key considerations include the definition of recidivism, the time-period of interest since release, methodology and calculation, characteristics of the respective groups, and the relative sample size of the groups or programs being compared.