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Rick Scott, Governor
Florida Department of Corrections, Secretary Michael D. Crews

Florida Department of Corrections
Timothy H. Cannon, Interim Secretary

Recidivism Rates - Model Factor Tables for Male Inmates Released 2004-2011

Table 1: Hazard Ratios for Categorical Factors Selected by Model

Factors Values Overall Releases
2004-2011
% Of Release Cohort Recidivism Rate Hazard Ratio
Supervision to Follow Yes 86,753 35% 41% 1.979**
No 163,980 65% 24%  
Gang Membership Yes 13,465 5% 50% 1.56**
No 237,268 95% 29%  
Race Black 122,509 49% 34% 1.233**
Non-Black 128,224 51% 25%  
Custody at Release Low (Community or Minimum) 119,174 48% 25% 0.877**
Most Serious Crime in Inmate History Murder / Manslaughter 8,089 3% 26% 0.714**
Ethnicity Hispanic 19,246 8% 23% 0.775**
Non-Hispanic 231,487 92% 30%  
No Spouse Yes 50,914 24% 32% 1.074**
No 157,036 76% 30%  
Most Serious Crime in 15 Years of Admission Sex Offense Within 15 Years of Admission 15,196 6% 34% 1.106**
Friends are a Positive Influence on Inmate Yes 118,071 57% 29% 0.954**
No 89,879 43% 32%  
Custody at Release High (Close) 35,734 14% 39% 1.085**
Most Serious Crime in 15 Years of Admission Other Violent Offense (e.g., assault or kidnapping) within 15 Years of Admission 82,668 33% 33% 0.962**
Friends are a Negative Influence on Inmate Yes  16,342 8% 34% 1.066**
No  191,608 92% 30%  
Inmate has a Diagnosed Mental Illness Yes  37,021 15% 30% 0.963*
No  213,712 85% 30%  
Most Serious Crime in Inmate History Robery 38,332 15% 39% 0.972*
Child Welfare Average Concern Yes  122,218 59% 30% 0.983*
No  85,732 41% 32%  
**: p-value ≤ 0.01; *: 0.01 < p-value ≤0.05; NS: Not Significant at α = 0.05

Table 2. Hazard Ratios for Continuous Factors

Factors Values Median Mean Hazard Ratio
Criminal History Number of Prior Prison Commitments (0-9) 0 0.6 1.224**
Age at First Offense Age at First Offense (13-84) 21 24.0 0.968**
Institutional Behavior Number of Disciplinary Reports During Current Incarceration (0-269) 0 2.5 1.012**
Education Level Most Recent Tests of Adult Basic Education (TABE) score (Grade Equivalents of 1-12.9) 6.7 0.971**
Substance Abuse Treatment Need Inmate-Reported Drug Screening Score (0-14) 4 5.6 1.021**
Criminal History Number of Theft Offenses within 5 Years of Admission (0-401) 0 1.0 1.006**
Number of Burglary Offenses (0-102) 0 1.0 1.028**
Number of Weapons Offenses (0-20) 0 0.2 0.943**
Number of Drug Offenses within 5 Years of Admission (0-73) 0 1.0 1.02**
Number of Other Offenses within 5 Years of Admission (0-115) 0 0.4 1.015**
**: p-value ≤ 0.01; *: 0.01 < p-value ≤0.05; NS: Not Significant at α = 0.05; †: An average cannot be calculated for grade equivalent TABE scores since these are not interval scale.

Note that hazard ratios in the above tables are interpreted as the multiple of the likelihood of failure. For example, inmates who are gang members have a hazard ratio of 1.56. Since it is greater than one, it means that a male inmate is (1.56-1=0.56) 56% more likely to fail than an inmate who was not a gang member with all other factors held constant (meaning they are identical on all factors in the model except for gang membership).

On the other hand, if the hazard ratio is less than one, the interpretation is a percent reduction in likelihood to fail.  For example, a Hispanic inmate is (1-0.775=.225) 22.5% less likely to recidivate than a non-Hispanic inmate with all other factors held constant.

For those measures that are expressed as numeric counts instead of dichotomous (Yes/No), the hazard ratios show the increase or decrease PER UNIT INCREASE in the factor. For example, for each additional disciplinary report an inmate receives while incarcerated, his likelihood of recidivating increases by (1.012-1=.012) 1.2%. For each additional grade level tested, his likelihood of recidivating decreases by (1-0.971=0.029) 2.9%.