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Rick Scott, Governor
Florida Department of Corrections, Secretary Michael D. Crews

Florida Department of Corrections
Michael D. Crews, Secretary

Factors in Order of Predictive Ability

Listed below are the factors in order of importance followed by an ‘H’ if the factor is associated with a higher likelihood of recidivism and an ‘L’ for a lower likelihood of recidivism.

Males

  1. Number of Prior Prison Commitments – H
  2. Supervision Following Prison – H
  3. Age at First Offense – L
  4. Number of Disciplinary Reports while in Prison – H
  5. Gang Member Suspected or Confirmed – H
  6. Most Recent TABE (Educational Level) Score – L
  7. Number of Property Offenses – H
  8. Hispanic Ethnicity – L
  9. Inmate Reported Drug Screening Score – H
  10. Low Custody – L
  11. Race is Black – H
  12. Worst Offense is Murder/Manslaughter – L
  13. Number of Other Violent Offenses – L
  14. Inmate has NO Spouse – H
  15. Number of Weapons Offenses – L
  16. Number of Drug Offenses within 5 Years Prior to Admission – H
  17. Friends are a Positive Influence on the Inmate – L
  18. High Custody – H
  19. Worst Offense is Robbery – L
  20. Sex Offense within 15 Years Prior to Admission – H
  21. Friends are a Negative Influence on the Inmate – H
  22. Diagnosed Mental Illness – L

Females

  1. Number of Prior Prison Commitments – H
  2. Age at First Offense - L
  3. Supervision Following Prison - H
  4. Inmate Reported Drug Screening Score – H
  5. Number of Theft/Fraud Offenses within 5 Years Prior to Admission – H
  6. Low Custody - L
  7. Most Recent TABE (Educational Level) Score – L
  8. Number of Other Offenses within 5 Years Prior to Admission – H
  9. Worst Offense is Burglary – H
  10. Diagnosed Mental Illness – H
  11. Murder/Manslaughter Offense within 15 Years Prior to Admission– L
  12. Hispanic Ethnicity – L
  13. Friends are a Negative Influence on the Inmate –H
  14. Number of Drug Offenses within 5 Years Prior to Admission – H
  15. Family has a Positive Influence on the Inmate – L
  16. Inmate Feels Animosity towards Their Attorney - L
  17. Gang Member Suspected or Confirmed – H

The factors that affect male recidivism, but not females are:

  1. Number of Discipline Reports while in Prison
  2. Race is Black
  3. Number of Other Violent Offenses
  4. Number of Weapons Offenses
  5. High Custody
  6. Worst Offense is Robbery
  7. Sex Offense within 15 years Prior to admission

The factors that affect female recidivism rates, but not male rates are:

  1. Number of Other Non-Violent Offenses within 5 years Prior to admission
  2. Worst Offense is Burglary
  3. Inmate Feels Animosity towards Their Attorney

The factors that affect both male recidivism and female recidivism in the same direction are (not in order of importance):

  1. Number of Prior Prison Commitments
  2. Age at First Offense
  3. Supervision to Follow
  4. Most Recent TABE (educational level) Score
  5. Hispanic Ethnicity
  6. Low Custody
  7. Inmate-Reported Drug Screening Score
  8. Number of Property/Theft Offenses
  9. Murder/Manslaughter Offense
  10. Number of Drug Offenses within 5 years Prior to Admission
  11. Friends Negative Influence
  12. Gang Member Suspected or Confirmed

The factor Diagnosed with a Mental Illness is associated with a higher likelihood of recidivism rate for females and a lower likelihood of recidivism rate for males. Not considering the other factors, the male inmates diagnosed with a mental illness have a higher recidivism rate than those with no mental illness (Table 1: 35% versus 30%). But after stepwise selection (with all other factors held constant), the hazard ratio of male inmates diagnosed with a mental illness becomes 0.964 (Table 1).

Table 5: Factors Not Included in the Model

Factors Values Overall Releases 2005-2012 Percent of Release Cohort Recidivism
Rate
Release Type Expiration of Sentence
(No Supervision to Follow)
165,084 65% 23%
Conditional Release
(mandatory supervision for serious
offenders as specified in F.S. 947.1405)
37,457 15% 48%
Expiration of Sentence to
Probation or Community Control
(Split Sentence)
36,454 14% 38%
Release Facility Major Correctional Institution 199,311 78% 30%
Work/Forestry Camp 16,737 7% 27%
Work Release Center/Transition Center 29,000 11% 18%

Note that the results presented in Table 5 do not constitute a rigorous evaluation of any factor. For example, it is not valid to claim that if all inmates went to Work Release Centers, one would realize a lower overall recidivism rate. Inmates who succeed at work release do not have the same characteristics as many other inmates, so the work release impact would likely be different if expanded to include a broader group of inmates.