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Rick Scott, Governor
Florida Department of Corrections, Secretary Michael D. Crews

Florida Department of Corrections
Michael D. Crews, Secretary

Recidivism Rates - Model Factor Tables for Inmates Released 2005-2012

Table 1: Hazard Ratios for Categorical Factors Selected by Model (Male)

Factors Values Overall Releases
2005-2012 (Available Data Only)
% Of Release Cohort Recidivism Rate Hazard Ratio
Supervision to Follow Yes 78,930 35% 42% 1.922**
No 145,495 65% 24%  
Gang Membership Yes 14,625 7% 49% 1.571**
No 209,800 93% 29%  
Ethnicity Hispanic 18,802 8% 23% 0.757**
Non-Hispanic 205,623 92% 31%  
Custody at Release Low (Community or Minimum) 99,760 44% 25% 0.853**
Race Black 111,875 50% 35% 1,185**
Non-Black 112,550 50% 26%  
Most Serious Crime in Inmate History Murder / Manslaughter 7,324 3% 27% 0.694**
No Spouse Yes 40,717 23% 34% 1.08**
No 132,747 77% 30%  
Friends are a Positive Influence on the Inmate Yes 99,972 58% 30% 0.955**
No 73,492 42% 33%  
Custody at Release High (Close) 34,539 15% 39% 1.079**
Most Serious Crime in Inmate History Robbery 36,243 16% 38% 0.946**
Sex Offense within 15 Years Prior to Admission Sex Offense 14,939 7% 33% 1.088**
Friends are a Negative Influence on the Inmate Yes  12,259 7% 36% 1.081**
No  161,205 93% 31%  
Inmate has a Diagnosed Mental Illness Yes  25,025 11% 35% 0.964**
No  199,400 89% 30%  
**: p-value ≤ 0.01; *: 0.01 < p-value ≤0.05; NS: Not Significant at α = 0.05

Table 2: Hazard Ratios for Continuous Factors Selected by Model (Male)

Factors Values Median Mean Hazard Ratio
Criminal History Number of Prior Prison Commitments (0-9) 0.0 0.7 1.221**
Age at First Offense Age at First Offense (13-84) 20.0 23.7 0.966**
Institutional Behavior Number of Disciplinary Reports During Current Incarceration (0-269) 1.0 2.6 1.012**
Education Level Most Recent Tests of Adult Basic Education (TABE) score (Grade Equivalents of 1-12.9) 6.6 0.97**
Criminal History Number of Property Offenses (0-401) 1.0 2.8 1.011**
Substance Abuse Severity Score Inmate-Reported Drug Screening Score (0-14) 4.0 5.4 1.02**
Criminal History Number of Other Violent Offenses (0-18) 0.0 0.7 0.974**
Number of Weapon Offenses (0-14) 0.0 0.2 0.941**
Number of Drug Offenses within 5 Years prior to Admission (0-57) 0.0 1.0 1.018**
**: p-value ≤ 0.01; *: 0.01 < p-value ≤0.05; NS: Not Significant at α = 0.05; †: An average cannot be calculated for grade equivalent TABE scores since these are not interval scale.

Table 3: Hazard Ratios for Categorical Factors Selected by Model (Female)

Factors Values Overall Releases
2005-2012 (Available Data Only)
% Of Release Cohort Recidivism Rate Hazard Ratio
Supervision to Follow Yes 8,863 30% 23% 1.823**
No 20,840 70% 13%  
Custody at Release Low (Community or Minimum) 20,457 69% 14% 0.782**
Most Serious Crime in Inmate History Burglary 3,498 12% 21% 1.278**
Inmate has a Diagnosed Mental Illness Yes  13,052 44% 19% 1.142**
No  16,651 56% 14%  
Murder Offenses Within 15 Years Prior to Admission Murder/Manslaughter 569 2% 9% 0.547**
Ethnicity Hispanic 1,332 4% 12% 0.688**
Non-Hispanic 28,371 96% 16%  
Friends are a Negative Influence on the Inmate Yes  2,665 13% 20% 1.122**
No  18,298 87% 16%  
Family is a Positive Influence on the Inmate Yes 16,970 81% 16% 0.921**
No 3,993 19% 19%  
Inmate Feels Animosity Towards Their Attorney Yes 2,775 13% 14% 0.903**
No 18,188 87% 17%  
Gang Membership Yes 130 0.4% *Sample Size too Small 1.508*
No 29,573 99.6% 16%  
**: p-value ≤ 0.01; *: 0.01 < p-value ≤0.05; NS: Not Significant at α = 0.05

Table 4: Hazard Ratios for Continuous Factors Selected by Model (Female)

Factors Values Median Mean Hazard Ratio
Criminal History Number of Prior Prison Commitments (0-7) 0.0 0.4 1.372**
Age at First Offense Age at First Offense (13-78) 24.0 26.6 0.959**
Substance Abuse Severity Score Inmate-Reported Drug Screening Score (0-14) 7.0 6.8 1.041**
Criminal History Number of Theft Offenses within 5 Years Prior to Admission (0-120) 0.0 1.5 1.028**
Education Level Most Recent Tests of Adult Basic Education (TABE) Score (Grade Equivalents of 1-12.9) 8.0 0.964**
Criminal History Number of Other Non-Violent Offenses within 5 Years Prior to Admission (0-17) 0.0 0.4 1.096**
Number of Drug Offenses within 5 Years Prior to Admission (0-68) 0.0 1.2 1.02**
**: p-value ≤ 0.01; *: 0.01 < p-value ≤0.05; NS: Not Significant at α = 0.05; †: An average cannot be calculated for grade equivalent TABE scores since these are not interval scale.

Note that hazard ratios in the above tables are interpreted as the multiple of the likelihood of failure.  For example, in Table 1 male inmates who are gang members have a hazard ratio of 1.571. Since it is greater than one, it means that a male inmate is (1.571-1=0.571) 57.1% more likely to fail than a male inmate who is not a gang member with all other factors held constant (meaning they are identical on all factors in the model except for gang membership).

On the other hand, if the hazard ratio is less than one, the interpretation is a percent reduction in likelihood to fail. For example, in Table 1 a male Hispanic inmate is (1-0.757=.243) 24.3% less likely to recidivate than a non-Hispanic male inmate with all other factors held constant.

For those measures that are expressed as numeric counts instead of dichotomous (Yes/No), the hazard ratios show the increase or decrease PER UNIT INCREASE in the factor. For example, in Table 2 for each additional disciplinary report a male inmate receives while incarcerated, his likelihood of recidivating increases by (1.012-1=.012) 1.2%. For each additional grade level tested, his likelihood of recidivating decreases by (1-0.97=0.03) 3.0%.