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Rick Scott, Governor
Florida Department of Corrections, Secretary Julie L. Jones

Florida Department of Corrections
Julie L. Jones, Secretary

Factors in Order of Predictability

Listed below are the factors in order of importance followed by an 'H' if the factor is associated with a higher likelihood of recidivism and an 'L' for a lower likelihood of recidivism.

Males

  1. Supervision Following Prison – H
  2. Number of Prior Prison Commitments – H
  3. Age at First Offense – L
  4. Gang Member Suspected or Confirmed – H
  5. Most Recent TABE (Education Level) Score – L
  6. Number of Theft Offenses within 5 Years Prior to Admission – H
  7. Low Custody – L
  8. Hispanic Ethnicity – L
  9. Number of Burglary Offenses – H
  10. Number of Disciplinary Reports while in Prison – H
  11. Number of Other Offenses within 5 Years Prior to Admission – H
  12. Friends Have a Negative Influences – H
  13. Most Serious Offense is Murder - L
  14. Inmate Reported Drug Screening Score – H
  15. Number of Visits Inmate Gets 12 Months Prior to Release – L
  16. Inmate has Other Violent Offenses within 15 Years Prior to Admission – L
  17. Spouse Have Positive Influence – L
  18. Inmate Furnished Bus Ticket for Release Transportation – H
  19. Friends Have a Positive Influence - L

Females

  1. Number of Prior Prison Commitments – H
  2. Supervision Following Prison - H
  3. Age at First Offense – L
  4. Inmate Reported Drug Screening Score – H
  5. Number of Theft Offenses within 5 Years Prior to Admission – H
  6. Most Recent TABE (Education Level) Score – L
  7. Low Custody - L
  8. Most Serious Offense is Murder - L
  9. Family has a Positive Influence – L
  10. Inmate Admits to Having Enemies Outside of Prison – L

The factors that affect male recidivism rates, but not female rates are:

  1. Number of Discipline Reports while in Prison
  2. Gang Membership
  3. Number of Burglary Offenses
  4. Number of Other Offenses within 5 Years Prior to Admission
  5. Violent Offense within 15 Years Prior to Admission
  6. Inmate is Hispanic
  7. Spouse Has a Positive Influence
  8. Friends Have a Positive Influence
  9. Friends Have a Negative Influence
  10. Visits by the Family and Friends 12 Months Prior to Release
  11. Bus Ticket Furnished by the Department of Corrections for Release Transportation

The factors that affect female recidivism rates, but not male rates are:

  1. Family Has a Positive Influence
  2. Inmate Concerned about Child’s Welfare

The factors that affect both male recidivism and female recidivism in the same direction are (not in order of importance):

  1. Number of Prior Prison Commitments
  2. Supervision to Follow
  3. Age at First Offense
  4. Low Custody
  5. Most Recent TABE Score
  6. Inmate-Reported Drug Screening Score
  7. Worst Offense is Murder
  8. Number of Theft Offenses within 5 Years Prior to Admission

Table 5: Factors Not Included in the Model

Factor Value Overall Releases 2012 Percent of Release Cohort Recidivism Rate
Release Type Expiration of Sentence (No Supervision to Follow) 19,753 65% 19%
Conditional Release (mandatory supervision for serious offenders as specified in F.S. 947.1405) 4,577 15% 43%
Expiration of Sentence to Probation or Community Control (Split Sentence) 4,746 16% 35%
Program Supervision (Addiction Recovery) 1,186 4% 19%
Release Facility Major Correctional Institution 24,739 84% 27%
Work/Forestry Camp 1,335 5% 24%
Work Release 3,116 11% 12%

Note that the results presented in Table 5 do not constitute a rigorous evaluation of any factor. For example, it is not valid to claim that if all inmates went to Work Release Centers, one would realize a lower overall recidivism rate.  Inmates who succeed at work release do not have the same characteristics as many other inmates, so the work release impact would likely be different if expanded to include a broader group of inmates.



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