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Rick Scott, Governor
Florida Department of Corrections, Secretary Michael D. Crews

Florida Department of Corrections
Michael D. Crews, Secretary

Results: Adult Females

Table 8 presents the base recidivism rates for adult female inmates using the recidivism re-offense measure generated from the SAS© life-test procedure with follow-up periods of six months to sixty months. These data show that, in the short term through an eighteen month follow-up period, the re-offense rates of public and private female inmates are virtually identical within five of the six outcome measures. Only the B1 group shows public female inmates exhibiting re-offense rate differences greater than 2% with public females recidivating slightly more than private female inmates (21.7% versus 19.4%). In the longer follow-up periods of thirty and thirty-six months, again only the B1 group indicates any difference greater than 2% with public female inmates having higher re-offense rates (34.0%) than private female releases (31.7%). However, none of these re-offense rate differences between the public and private adult female inmates are statistically significant at the p<.05 level.

Table 8: Adult Females - Re-Offense Recidivism Rates with No Controls for Explanatory Variables
Treatment Effect Measurement Group

  A1 Group A2 Group B1 Group B2 Group B3 Group C1 Group
Public Private Public Private Public Private Public Private Public Private Public Private
Number of Cases 3,631 1,866 2,702 1,332 4,714 640 5,066 1,447 5,395 1,333 6,047 1,712
Follow-Up Period                        
6 Months 10.2% 7.9% 9.9% 8.1% 9.1% 6.8% 8.8% 7.1% 8.7% 6.6% 8.8% 7.0%
12 Months 17.2% 15.2% 16.4% 16.1% 16.0% 14.3% 15.7% 14.9% 15.4% 13.4% 15.5% 14.3%
18 Months 23.4% 22.0% 22.6% 23.0% 21.7% 19.4% 21.2% 21.8% 21.0% 19.8% 21.0% 21.3%
24 Months 27.8% 27.6% 27.2% 28.5% 26.4% 24.7% 25.8% 27.4% 25.5% 24.8% 25.6% 26.4%
36 Months 35.3% 35.4% 34.4% 36.1% 34.0% 31.7% 33.4% 34.7% 33.1% 32.0% 33.3% 33.4%
48 Months 41.3% 40.7% 40.4% 42.5% 40.1% 36.8% 39.4% 40.4% 39.1% 36.1% 39.0% 39.2%
60 Months 45.3% 44.7% 44.5% 46.2% na na 42.7%* 43.7%* na na 42.5%* 42.7%*
None of the recidivism rate differences were statistically significant at the p<.05 level (Wilcoxon Test).
* 58 months.

Re-imprisonment rates for adult female releases are displayed in Table 9, prior to controlling for known relevant predictors, for the public and private releases within each of the six definitional groups. For the short term re-imprisonment rates up to eighteen months after prison release, none of the differences in the public and private female releases are meaningful with all groups revealing a less than a 2% difference. For the longer term rates up to thirty-six months, only within the B1 group was there a difference of more than 2%. Within this group, public female inmates were re-imprisoned at a 2.8% higher rate than private females. However, none of these re-imprisonment rate differences between public and private inmates are statistically significant at the p<.05 level.

Table 9: Adult Females - Re-Imprisonment Recidivism Rates with No Controls for Explanatory Variables
Treatment Effect Measurement Group

  A1 Group A2 Group B1 Group B2 Group B3 Group C1 Group
Public Private Public Private Public Private Public Private Public Private Public Private
Number of Cases 3,631 1,866 2,702 1,332 4,714 640 5,066 1,447 5,395 1,333 6,047 1,712
Follow-Up Period                        
6 Months 5.9% 4.9% 5.9% 5.3% 5.1% 3.6% 5.0% 4.2% 4.9% 3.5% 4.9% 4.2%
12 Months 9.4% 9.3% 9.4% 9.9% 8.7% 7.2% 8.6% 8.5% 8.5% 7.0% 8.4% 8.2%
18 Months 12.6% 12.3% 12.6% 12.7% 11.4% 9.5% 11.2% 11.2% 11.2% 9.8% 11.2% 10.9%
24 Months 14.8% 15.8% 14.7% 16.2% 13.9% 12.9% 13.6% 14.4% 13.5% 13.3% 13.6% 13.9%
36 Months 18.7% 20.0% 18.7% 20.1% 17.5% 14.7% 17.3% 18.3% 17.0% 16.1% 17.4% 17.5%
48 Months 20.9% 21.7% 21.2% 22.1% 19.8% 17.1% 19.5% 20.5% 19.3% 17.7% 19.5% 19.8%
60 Months 22.0%* 22.2%* n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
None of the recidivism rate differences were statistically significant at the p<.05 level (Wilcoxon Test).
* No comparison groups had estimates for longer than 56 months.

Table 10 presents the distributions of the private and public adult female inmates on the variables used in the final survival models to answer the question whether recidivism rates differ across the two groups. In terms of the demographic characteristics, adult females from public prisons were somewhat younger at release than those from private prison; however, the difference was not statistically significant (mean age: public = 33.4; private = 35.6). The racial and ethnicity distributions across the public and private groups were virtually the same. In contrast, private female inmates were somewhat more likely to have more prior recidivism events than public female inmates and these differences were statistically significant (average: private = 0.9; public = 0.7, p<.01) but are very similar in terms of the percentage that were close custody inmates (private = 29.5%; public = 28.9%). Public female inmates were much more likely to spend longer lengths of time in prison (average months: public = 20.4; private = 16.4) and have more disciplinary problems while in prison (average disciplinary reports: public = 2.8; private = 0.7). The median TABE score for public was slightly lower than for private female inmates (6.6 versus 7.3) and more likely to be released to some form of post-prison supervision (26.5% versus 22.0%). In terms of their most serious crime type, public female inmates are more likely to have committed a homicide, sex/lewd offense, or a robbery than private female inmates. However, the two groups are very similar in terms of their total number of convictions for property, drug, and weapons offenses.

The differences described on many of the control variables for the public and private adult female inmates indicate the need to control for these factors when evaluating whether the recidivism rates differ between the two groups. Public female inmates are younger at release, and have more disciplinary infractions as well as lower TABE scores. These characteristics are all associated with a higher likelihood of recidivism. In contrast, private inmates have more prior recidivism rates and shorter prison stays, and are less likely to have post-prison supervision, which are also predictive of higher recidivism rates.

Table 10: Adult Females - Descriptive Statistics of Public and Private Inmates
Treatment and Control Group Definition B1
  Public Private Total
Total Cases
4,714
640
5,354
Age at Release
Under 18 21 0.4% 0 0.0% 21
18 to 24 659 14.0% 27 4.2% 686
25 to 34 1,950 41.4% 270 42.2% 2,220
35 to 49 1,962 41.6% 316 49.4% 2,278
50 to 59 102 2.2% 24 3.8% 126
60+ 20 0.4% 3 0.5% 23
Average
33.4
35.6
 
Race – Black 2,696 57.2% 363 56.7% 3,059
Hispanic 139 2.9% 16 2.5% 155
Prior Recidivism Events **
0 2,862 60.7% 335 52.3% 3,197
1 943 20.0% 160 25.0% 1,103
2 500 10.6% 70 10.9% 570
3 270 5.7% 35 5.5% 305
4 94 2.0% 28 4.4% 122
5 + 45 1.0% 12 1.9% 57
Average
0.7
0.9
 
Custody Low ** 3,352 71.1% 451 70.5% 3,803
Custody High ** 256 5.4% 0 0.0% 256
Months in Prison **
1-12 1,912 40.6% 332 51.9% 2,244
13-24 1,616 34.3% 189 29.5% 1,805
25-36 618 13.1% 67 10.5% 685
37-48 264 5.6% 34 5.3% 298
49-60 127 2.7% 12 1.9% 139
61+ 177 3.8% 6 0.9% 183
Average
20.4
16.4
 
Total Disciplinary Reports **
0 2,430 51.5% 466 72.8% 2,896
1 809 17.2% 96 15.0% 905
2 388 8.2% 35 5.5% 423
3 to 6 563 11.9% 27 4.2% 590
7 or More 524 11.1% 16 2.5% 540
Average
2.8
0.7
 
Last TABE Score **
1-3.9 894 19.0% 109 17.0% 1,003
4-8.9 2,745 58.2% 354 55.3% 3,099
9-11.9 626 13.3% 104 16.3% 730
12-12.9 449 9.5% 73 11.4% 522
Median
6.6
7.3
 
Supervision – Yes ** 1,249 26.5% 141 22.0% 1,390
Most Serious – Homicide ** 231 4.9% 10 1.6% 241
Most Serious - Sex/Lewd ** 58 1.2% 3 0.5% 61
Most Serious – Robbery ** 572 12.1% 54 8.4% 626
Most Serious - Other Violent 1,317 27.9% 171 26.7% 1,488
Most Serious – Burglary * 489 10.4% 61 9.5% 550
Total Property Crimes (Average)
1.1
1.4
 
Total Drug Crimes (Average) **
1.4
1.5
 
Total Weapons Crimes (Average)
0.1
0.1
 

Significance levels based on T-Tests when averages are displayed and Chi-Square when they are not.
* Significant at p<.05, ** Significant at p<.01.

Even though the base recidivism rate comparison between the public and private prison experience for adult females revealed no statistically significant differences, the differences in these populations indicates the need to use multivariate survival models to control for the effects of these variables on recidivism rates. Table 11 displays these results and shows that, for the re-offense recidivism measure, only the B1 group reveals a statistically significant difference with the private female group experiencing lower recidivism rates than the public female group. However, the private prison effect in the B1 group is marginally significant (p = .043), and when performing a stepwise survival model which requires an entry p value of .05 or lower, the treatment effect does not enter the model. These contradictory results may be due to the proximity of the p-value to the stepwise significance level threshold and some slight interaction between the treatment indicator variable and the other control variables. None of the re-imprisonment rate differences between public and private adult female inmates within each of the six methods of quantifying the type of prison experience were statistically significant.

Table 11: Adult Females: Recidivism Predictor Variables Using Survival Analysis
Maximum Likelihood Estimates (MLE’s)
Effect Measure Re-Offense Re-Imprisonment
A1 A2 B1 B2 B3 C1 A1 A2 B1 B2 B3 C1
Total Cases 5,497 3,404 5,354 6,513 6,528 7,759 5,497 3,404 5,354 6,513 6,528 7,759
Treatment (Private) Cases 1,866 1,332 640 1,447 1,133 1,712 1,866 1,332 640 1,447 1,133 1,712
Control (Public) Cases 3,631 2,072 4,714 5,066 5,395 6,047 3,631 2,072 4,714 5,066 5,395 6,047
Treatment (Private) Group -.06 -.02 -.18* -.06 -.11 .01 -.02 -.01 -.08 .01 .04 .10
Age at Release -.02** -.03** -.03** -.03** -.03** -.03** -.03** -.03** -.03** -.03** -.03** -.03**
Black -.15* -.09 -.18** -.16** -.16** .14** .26** .24* .28* .29** -.25** -.25**
Hispanic -.45** -.49* -.25 -.30 -.35* -.31* -.44 -.39 -.18 -.36 -.27 -.35
Prior Recidivism .24** .24** .24** .25** .26** .27** .33** .33** .32** .33** .33** .34**
Custody - Low -.07 -.09 -.02 -.07 -.04 .10 -.05 -.01 -.04 -.08 -.02 -.10
Custody - High -.26 -.27 -.25 -.25 -.26 -.27 -.10 -.07 .03 -.05 -.04 -.11
Months in Prison -.01** -.01** -.01** -.02** -.02** -.02** -.01 -.00 -.01 -.01** -.01** -.01**

Total Disciplinary Reports

.02** .02** .02** .02** .02** .02** .01 .01 .01 .01** .01** .01**
Last TABE grade -.02* -.02 -.04** -.03** -.03** -.03** -.03* -.04* -.06** -.05** -.05** -.04**
Supervision -.19** -.15* -.20** -.20** -.19** -.19** .06 .10 -.04 -.03 .01 .02
Most Serious - Homicide -.66** -.76** -.65** -.60** -.62** -.55** -.66* -.70* -.58 -.53 -.60* -.46
Most Serious - Sex/Lewd -.87* -1.14** -1.08* -.96* -.96* -.76* -1.04 -.98 -1.75 -1.83 -1.78 -.84
Most Serious - Robbery .09 .18 .02 .02 .03 .02 .16 .14 .33* .34** .37** .29**
Most Serious - Other Violent -.09 -.16* -.03 -.03 -.04 -.05 .03 .01 .21* .17 .20* .15
Most Serious - Burglary .21** .17 .18* .28** .25** .24** .38** .36** .49** .51** .50** .46**
Total Property Crimes .01 .01 .02** .02** .02** .01** .01 .01 .02** .02* .02** .02*
Total Drug Crimes .05** .04** .05** .05** .05** .05** .06** .05** .06** .06** .06** .06**
Total Weapons Crimes -.03 -.03 -.00 -.01 .01 -.01 .07 .07 .02 .05 .06 .06
* Significant at p<.05, ** Significant at p<.01.