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Rick Scott, Governor
Florida Department of Corrections, Secretary Michael D. Crews

Florida Department of Corrections
Michael D. Crews, Secretary

Results: Youthful Offender Males

Table 12 presents the base recidivism rates for youthful offender males using the reoffense measure generated from the SAS© life-test procedure with follow-up periods of six months to thirty-six months. These data show that, in the six month follow-up, the private youthful offender males have lower recidivism re-offense rates than their public counterparts. In the intermediate periods of twelve to eighteen months follow-up, the re-offense rates of public and private youthful offender adult male inmates exhibit no meaningful differences in that none of the differences exceed 2%. In contrast, for the longer follow-up period of thirty-six months, public youthful offender male inmates have higher re-offense rates within all of six groups, ranging from 4.6% higher in the B1 group to 8.7% for the A2 group. However, none of these base re-offense rate differences are statistically significant at the p<.05 level.

Table 12: Youthful Offender Males - Re-Offense Recidivism Rates with No Controls for Explanatory Variables
Treatment Effect Measurement Group

  A1 Group A2 Group B1 Group B2 Group B3 Group C1 Group
Public Private Public Private Public Private Public Private Public Private Public Private
Number of Cases
3,633
450
3,023
376
3,896
396
4,203
631
4,507
474
4,189
439
Follow-Up Period
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6 Months
15.1%
10.7%
15.1%
10.6%
13.5%
10.7%
13.7%
9.8%
13.7%
9.6%
13.0%
9.3%
12 Months
24.9%
22.7%
24.7%
23.3%
22.9%
22.3%
23.2%
21.6%
23.1%
21.2%
22.1%
20.7%
18 Months
31.9%
31.8%
31.6%
31.1%
29.7%
30.4%
29.9%
29.7%
29.7%
29.6%
28.4%
29.3%
24 Months
37.0%
36.1%
36.9%
34.0%
34.5%
34.8%
34.6%
33.5%
34.7%
33.4%
33.2%
32.4%
36 Months
43.4%
40.4%
43.3%
37.8%
n/a
n/a
40.8%
38.7%
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
None of the recidivism rate differences were statistically significant at the p<.05 level (Wilcoxon Test).

Table 13 presents the base recidivism rates for youthful offender males using the reimprisonment recidivism measure. These data show that, in the short term through an eighteen months follow-up period, the re-imprisonment rates of private youthful offender male inmates have slightly lower rates than the public youthful offender males, ranging from 0.4% in the A2 group to 2.5% in the C1 group. The greatest difference in the pubic and private prison reimprisonment rates for the longer term twenty-four month follow-up period was 6.0% in the C1 group with private prisons having lower recidivism rates (14.6% versus 20.6%). However, none of the differences in re-imprisonment rates between the public and private prisons were statistically significant at the p<.05 level.

Table 13: Youthful Offender Males - Re-Imprisonment Recidivism Rates with No Controls for Explanatory Variables
Treatment Effect Measurement Group

  A1 Group A2 Group B1 Group B2 Group B3 Group C1 Group
Public Private Public Private Public Private Public Private Public Private Public Private
Number of Cases
3,633
450
3,023
376
3,896
396
4,203
631
4,507
474
4,189
439
Follow-Up Period
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6 Months
9.3%
8.2%
9.3%
7.9%
8.3%
7.3%
8.4%
7.0%
8.5%
6.8%
8.5%
6.5%
12 Months
15.0%
14.4%
15.2%
14.8%
14.0%
12.9%
14.2%
12.9%
14.3%
12.6%
14.2%
11.7%
18 Months
18.9%
18.3
19.3%
17.7%
17.8%
16.6%
17.9%
16.6%
17.8%
16.0%
17.7%
14.6%
24 Months
21.7%
20.1%
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
20.5%
18.5%
20.5%
17.0%
20.6%
14.6%
None of the recidivism rate differences were statistically significant at the p<.05 level (Wilcoxon Test).
* No comparison groups had estimates for longer than 56 months.

Table 14 displays descriptive statistics of the private and public youthful offender male inmates on the variables used in the final survival models to address the issue of whether recidivism rates differ across the two groups. In terms of the demographic characteristics of age at release, race, and ethnicity, as well as the number of prior recidivism events, the public and private youthful offender male inmates are virtually the same. However, youthful offender males from private prisons are less to be low custody at release (52.3% versus 59.3%, p<.01), spend less time in prison (average = 16.6 versus 18.6 months, p<.01), have slightly lower TABE scores (median = 7.0 versus 7.8), and are less likely to have post-prison supervision (27.8% versus 39.1%). These characteristics are associated with higher recidivism rates. In contrast, public youthful offender males have much more disciplinary problems in prison their private counterparts (average = 2.9 versus 1.8, p<.01), which is also predictive of higher rates.

Table 14: Youthful Offender Males - Descriptive Statistics of Public and Private Inmates
  Public Private Total
Total Cases
3,896
396
4,292
Age at Releases
Under 18
155
4.0%
0
0.0%
155
18 to 24
3,699
95.0%
395
99.8%
4,094
25 to 34
41
1.0%
1
0.2%
42
35 to 49
1
0.0%
0
0.0%
1
50 to 59
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
60+
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
Average
20.3
20.9
 
Race – Black
2,197
56.4%
222
56.1%
2,419
Hispanic
335
8.6%
29
7.3%
364
Prior Recidivism Events **
0
3,896
100.0%
396
100.0%
4,292
1
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
2
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
3
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
4
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
5 +
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
Average
0.0
0.0
 
Custody Low **
2,312
59.3%
207
52.3%
2,519
Custody High **
323
8.3%
36
9.1%
359
Months in Prison **
1-12
1,337
34.3%
171
43.2%
1,508
13-24
1,566
40.2%
154
38.9%
1,720
25-36
652
16.7%
53
13.4%
705
37-48
246
6.3%
12
3.0%
258
49-60
73
1.9%
6
1.5%
79
61+
22
0.6%
0
0.0%
22
Average
18.6
16.6
 
Total Disciplinary Reports **
0
1,066
27.4%
170
42.9%
1,236
1
710
18.2%
79
20.0%
789
2
489
12.6%
50
12.6%
539
3 to 6
1,080
27.7%
69
17.4%
1,149
7 or More
551
14.1%
28
7.1%
579
Average
2.9
1.8
 
Last TABE Score **
1-3.9
508
13.0%
56
14.1%
564
4-8.9
1,981
50.8%
217
54.8%
2,198
9-11.9
884
22.7%
67
16.9%
951
12-12.9
523
13.4%
56
14.1%
579
Median
7.8
7.0
 
Supervision – Yes **
1,524
39.1%
110
27.8%
1,634
Most Serious – Homicide **
115
3.0%
5
1.3%
120
Most Serious - Sex/Lewd **
169
4.3%
20
5.1%
189
Most Serious – Robbery **
851
21.9%
41
10.4%
892
Most Serious - Other Violent
809
20.8%
104
26.3%
913
Most Serious – Burglary *
1,090
28.0%
119
30.0%
1,209
Total Property Crimes (Average)
0.7
0.7
 
Total Drug Crimes (Average) **
0.5
0.7
 
Total Weapons Crimes (Average)
0.1
0.1
 

Significance levels based on T-Tests when averages are displayed and Chi-Square when they are not.
* Significant at p<.05, ** Significant at p<.01.

Table 15 displays the results of the multivariate survival models for the youthful offender males which control several variables known to influence recidivism rates. None of the reoffense or re-imprisonment rate differences between public and private youthful offender male inmates within each of the six methods of quantifying the type of prison experience were statistically significant at the p<.05 level.

Table 15: Youthful Offender Males - Recidivism Predictor Variables Using Survival Analysis
Maximum Likelihood Estimates (MLE’s)
Effect Measure Re-Offense Re-Imprisonment
A1 A2 B1 B2 B3 C1 A1 A2 B1 B2 B3 C1
Total Cases
4,083
3,399
4,292
4,834
4,981
4,628
4,083
3,399
4,292
4,834
4,981
4,628
Treatment (Private) Cases
450
376
396
631
474
439
450
376
396
63`
474
439
Control (Public) Cases
3,633
3,023
3,896
4,203
4,507
4,189
3,633
3,023
3,896
4,203
4,507
4,189
Treatment (Private) Group
-.04
-.06
-.07
-.10
-.08
-.16
-.05
-.03
-.02
-.00
-.03
-.18
Age at Release
-.12**
-.13**
-.11**
-.12**
-.13**
-.11**
-.16**
-.18**
-.15**
-.17**
-.15**
-.13**
Black
.52**
.44**
.53**
.53**
.49**
.44**
.62**
.57**
.68**
.64**
.61**
.56**
Hispanic
.09
.08
.16
.12
.04
-.03
-.04
-.13
.03
-.00
-.10
-.15
Prior Recidivism
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Custody - Low
-.04
-.05
-.07
-.11
-.08
-.12
-.06
-.05
-.14
-.15
-.12
-.12
Custody - High
.14
.15
.16
.04
.11
.06
.23
.19
.29*
.10
.21
.13
Months in Prison
-.00**
-.00
-.01
-.00
-.00
-.00
.00
.01
.00
.00
.00
.00

Total Disciplinary Reports

.05**
.04**
.06**
.04**
.04**
.03**
.03*
.03*
.05**
.04**
.04**
.02**
Last TABE grade
-.03**
-.03**
-.04**
-.04**
-.04**
-.05**
-.04*
-.04*
-.06**
-.06**
-.06**
-.06**
Supervision
-.24**
-.27**
-.33**
-.31**
-.30**
-.28**
.25**
.20*
.13
.14
.14
.14
Most Serious - Homicide
-.83**
-.93**
-.75**
-.73**
-.65**
-.53**
-.96*
-1.11**
-.74*
-.61*
-.58*
-.73
Most Serious - Sex/Lewd
-.54**
-.62**
-.34
-.44*
-.46**
-.50**
-.37
-46
-.16
-.27
-.20
-.27
Most Serious - Robbery
-.42**
-.56**
-.36**
-.41**
-.37**
-.30**
-.32*
-.51**
-.30*
-.31*
-.23
-.25
Most Serious - Other Violent
-.11*
-.25*
-.06
-.10
-.08
-.02
-.18
-.34*
-.09
-.11
-.03
-.07
Most Serious - Burglary
.09
.00
.05
.03
.02
.03
.26*
.09
.23
.22
.20
.10
Total Property Crimes
.06**
.05**
.06**
.06**
.06**
.05**
.08**
.07**
.09**
.08**
.08**
.08**
Total Drug Crimes
.07**
.06*
.08**
.08**
.07**
.09**
.07*
.06
.08**
.08**
.09**
.11**
Total Weapons Crimes
.04
.06
.05
.06
.09
.08
.02
.01
-02
-.01
.05
.07
* Significant at p<.05, ** Significant at p<.01, *** All cases had a value of 0 on Prior Recidivism.